Iran vs. A Real Crisis
A question appeared on Helium the other day: "Is Iran's nuclear threat of any concern to us?" I wrote a little essay in response that I'll expand on here.
I don't think this is a great question because the answer is obviously -- yes, of course it is a concern. But that is not what's being debated.
What's being debated is whether or not a nuclear Iran is an imminent crisis, and the answer to that question is decidedly -- NO!
Why? If you haven't gotten a chance to watch or rent Ken Burn's The War, do so now:
I've only watched the first couple of episodes, but The War makes vividly clear just how much the United States and England were on the ropes and seriously risked losing the war to both Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany in the first year or so of the war. Quoting from the first episode:
From the largest surrender of U.S. forces in history, 78,000 American and Filipino troops to to Imperial Japan in May 1941; from the fall of last American stronghold in the Philippines, Corregidor; from the shocking defeat and slaughter of untested U.S. forces by Rommel's Panzer units in North Africa and the Kasserine Pass; from the desperate battle for the control of Axis Italy; to finally the horrific loss of U.S. and British air force personnel in the skies over Nazi occupied Europe, I don't think anyone in their right mind would have predicted certain victory -- far from it.
At the end of that first year, late 1942, more than 35,000 Americans in uniform had died. From the Pacific, to North Africa, to the skies over Europe -- the world was aflame.
. . . and the worse, far worse, was yet to come.
Ken Burn's The War puts into stark and badly needed relief the rhetoric again Iran, e.g., Bush's prediction of WWIII. With the U.S. being the world's only real superpower, with the most formidable military machine in the history of the planet, I think too many people have forgotten what a REAL threat looks like: there's nothing going on the world today - not even close - that compares to the threat that the Axis Powers presented to the west in the 1940's. Nothing.
Iran may and probably will get a few nuclear weapons in a few years -- but in no way is that any real direct threat to the U.S.. In fact, according to an article in the June 2001 25th edition of Newsweek, President Bush was stunned when he was told in May of the size of the US nuclear arsenal. Bush was quoted as saying, I had no idea we had so many weapons . . .
9/11 did change allot-- but mostly it changed perceptions, and contrary to those perceptions, the U.S. is in no real imminent peril from Iran or radical Islam:
The progressive left has their crisis and imminent peril: global warming. The neo-conservative right has it's own crisis and imminent peril: a nuclear armed Iran.
To the contrary, these are problems -- slowly developing problems. They are NOT catastrophic crises imminently barring down on us.
If you want to see what a catastrophic crisis imminently barring down on one looks & feels like -- see Ken Burn's The War.
Further reference reading:
Disclosure about how well I'm trying to manipulate you: the headline of this post ('Iran vs. A Real Crisis') has an Emotional Marketing Value Score of 60% that appeals predominately to your intellectual sphere . . .
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The perfect quote that succinctly sums up that idea that Iran is in no real position to taken anybody, least of all the U.S. or Israel. Thank you Ron Paul!!!! MR. RUSSERT: So if Iran invaded Israel, what... Read More

I think you make a very salient point. There is frequently talk on the neoconservative right of “surrender” as a possible outcome of our policies in the Middle East. To which one is always forced to ask “Surrender what? To whom?” The entire debate has vectored into the absurd.
www.cato-at-liberty.org has a very similar post:
Zakaria on Iran
It says:
Fareed Zakaria has a terrific column on Iran today. A snip:
The American discussion about Iran has lost all connection to reality. Norman Podhoretz, the neoconservative ideologist whom Bush has consulted on this topic, has written that Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is “like Hitler … a revolutionary whose objective is to overturn the going international system and to replace it in the fullness of time with a new order dominated by Iran and ruled by the religio-political culture of Islamofascism.” For this staggering proposition Podhoretz provides not a scintilla of evidence.